Fear the Fin- Flying on Planes with Doug Wilson
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Monday, March 1, 2010
Stupid Unpleasant Reality...
Allow me to make a splash with my first post by presenting an unpleasant and probably undesired opinion: Joe Thornton's disappearing act in the Vancouver Olympics casts a very dark shadow over the Sharks' playoff hopes this season.
Already apologists are making excuses, claiming that he's playing hurt or that his turnovers are down or that he's playing better defensively or, most comically, that the creation of a "third-assist" stat would vindicate his play. As usual, though, the numbers don't lie. Big Joe's single goal, single assist and minus-1 rating for the tournament were the second worst among Team Canada's forwards, as he and Patrice Bergeron were the only players to sport a negative plus-minus. The team, it should be noted, was plus-19 for the tournament. Thornton somehow managed this feat even as his regular wingers, with whom he should have had the best chemistry of any center on Team Canada, put up completely respectable numbers.
Jumbo has always been accused of being a no-show in the clutch, and until now I always looked for reasons to argue against that opinion. Sadly last spring's playoffs combined with the last two weeks have swung me to the dark (and also correct) side. Two points in 7 games of near-playoff importance is almost as unclutch as it gets.
Thus in a couple of months we shall come upon yet another chance for Big Joe to redeem himself. I personally think it should be his last with the Sharks if that redemption does not occur. As many have discussed there will be some very difficult decisions to be made with numerous key Sharks needing to be re-signed in the coming offseason. The amount of cap space available for this task will be minimal, and thus every player's "bang-for-your-buck" factor will have to be scrutinized. Up until now Thornton has been considered by most to be untradeable, and his admittedly impressive regular season production has supported that viewpoint.
That regular season production of 1.02 ppg, however, drops to 0.7 ppg in the playoffs. This coupled with his failure to take it to the next level in elimination games drastically reduces the bang you get for his substantial buck. This is why unless Thornton has a stand out performance this spring that results in at least a Cup Finals appearance for the Sharks, I believe he should be the odd man out this offseason.
So who should be his replacement? Pardon me while I prepare to stab myself in the ear drum with a ballpoint pen as I say this.... the answer is Ryan Getzlaf. I personally have no idea how anyone will be able to wrestle him away from Anaheim, and any realistic trade would clearly have to involve another team that would provide multiple pieces that the Ducks would be looking for. All that being said, whether its realistic or not, I would trade Joe Thornton for Ryan Getzlaf straight up in a heartbeat. Like today.
The Duck-hater in me has finally been beaten back by the pragmatist: Getzlaf is everything Thornton is (gifted passer with size, vision and amazing hands) , and many things that he isn't (younger, plays with more swagger, more clutch, has a cup, can actually shoot the puck). He is also almost 2 million dollars per year cheaper than Big Joe. This combined with his additional multidimensionality, youth and proven ability to show up in big games give him a significant bang-for-buck advantage over Thornton.
Seeing as the Sharks have been described as "all-in" this season, another playoff disappointment will force a much bigger team shake up than last offseason's. I hope it doesn't happen that way, but I can't deny that the Sharks would be a more dangerous team as well as one in a better cap situation if Getzlaf took Thornton's spot as their top center.
-GBF
Already apologists are making excuses, claiming that he's playing hurt or that his turnovers are down or that he's playing better defensively or, most comically, that the creation of a "third-assist" stat would vindicate his play. As usual, though, the numbers don't lie. Big Joe's single goal, single assist and minus-1 rating for the tournament were the second worst among Team Canada's forwards, as he and Patrice Bergeron were the only players to sport a negative plus-minus. The team, it should be noted, was plus-19 for the tournament. Thornton somehow managed this feat even as his regular wingers, with whom he should have had the best chemistry of any center on Team Canada, put up completely respectable numbers.
Jumbo has always been accused of being a no-show in the clutch, and until now I always looked for reasons to argue against that opinion. Sadly last spring's playoffs combined with the last two weeks have swung me to the dark (and also correct) side. Two points in 7 games of near-playoff importance is almost as unclutch as it gets.
Thus in a couple of months we shall come upon yet another chance for Big Joe to redeem himself. I personally think it should be his last with the Sharks if that redemption does not occur. As many have discussed there will be some very difficult decisions to be made with numerous key Sharks needing to be re-signed in the coming offseason. The amount of cap space available for this task will be minimal, and thus every player's "bang-for-your-buck" factor will have to be scrutinized. Up until now Thornton has been considered by most to be untradeable, and his admittedly impressive regular season production has supported that viewpoint.
That regular season production of 1.02 ppg, however, drops to 0.7 ppg in the playoffs. This coupled with his failure to take it to the next level in elimination games drastically reduces the bang you get for his substantial buck. This is why unless Thornton has a stand out performance this spring that results in at least a Cup Finals appearance for the Sharks, I believe he should be the odd man out this offseason.
So who should be his replacement? Pardon me while I prepare to stab myself in the ear drum with a ballpoint pen as I say this.... the answer is Ryan Getzlaf. I personally have no idea how anyone will be able to wrestle him away from Anaheim, and any realistic trade would clearly have to involve another team that would provide multiple pieces that the Ducks would be looking for. All that being said, whether its realistic or not, I would trade Joe Thornton for Ryan Getzlaf straight up in a heartbeat. Like today.
The Duck-hater in me has finally been beaten back by the pragmatist: Getzlaf is everything Thornton is (gifted passer with size, vision and amazing hands) , and many things that he isn't (younger, plays with more swagger, more clutch, has a cup, can actually shoot the puck). He is also almost 2 million dollars per year cheaper than Big Joe. This combined with his additional multidimensionality, youth and proven ability to show up in big games give him a significant bang-for-buck advantage over Thornton.
Seeing as the Sharks have been described as "all-in" this season, another playoff disappointment will force a much bigger team shake up than last offseason's. I hope it doesn't happen that way, but I can't deny that the Sharks would be a more dangerous team as well as one in a better cap situation if Getzlaf took Thornton's spot as their top center.
-GBF
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