Wednesday, February 3, 2010

Niclas Wallin to San Jose?

At the expense of a more formal introduction (my name is Matt), I wanted to get this out there as soon as possible for anyone reading the blog.

About a half hour ago, TSN's James Duthie, who is usually as reliable as they come in the hockey world, reported that the Carolina Hurricanes were considering moving defenseman Niclas Wallin. He tweeted that San Jose was a possibility here-

http://twitter.com/tsnjamesduthie/status/8607868766

He went on to say that Wallin, who has a NTC, has likely waived it.

http://twitter.com/tsnjamesduthie/status/8608192001

It was just now confirmed that Wallin is indeed a healthy scratch for tonight, so this looks like it could be a done deal.

I'm guessing a 3rd round pick, or possibly a mid level prospect and a 7th.

Details and analysis to follow.


UPDATE #1 4:20pm

TSN is now reporting that a deal is imminent n their site.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=308812

Wallin's cap hit is $1.725m, and the Sharks can only afford a cap hit of $1.095m, so it would appear a roster player will be dealt if this trade is going to go through.


UPDATE #2 4:45pm

With a roster player having to go back, I'm starting to get the impression that this trade could be akin to the "trade someone with positive value (Wallin) for someone they don't want to take on plus a positive value draft pick/prospect" that has been popularized in the cap-ridden NHL.

If that is the case, I can see a few possibilities. The player would have to be earning at least $650k salary in order for the Sharks to have the cap space.

In order of my perceived likelihood (nothing is official)-

1. Wallin for Shelley (750K) + 3rd round pick
-Shelley is redundant with younger Staubitz and McLaren, and those two do not make enough (500K & 543K respectively) to clear

2. Wallin + 4th round pick for McGinn (997K)
-McGinn was sent to Woostah today, although as we all know, could definitely just be routine shuttling.

3. Wallin + 3rd round pick for Mitchell (1.357m)
-Mitchell hasn't regained form yet and has a high cap hit, and Carolina will likely be looking for a young player.

4. Wallin for Huskins (1.7m) + 5th round pick
-I'm going to say there is a very outside chance of this happening only because it would enable another move based on the wash in salary, and it would save salary next year (Wallin is going to retire at the end of the year).


UPDATE #3 5:15pm

So, a little backstory on Wallin while we're waiting for more information.

Wallin holds a NTC because there were a lot of rumors going around that after Carolina won the Stanley Cup in 05-06, Wallin (who was an impending UFA) wished to return home to Sweden to raise his family. It came down to him either staying in Carolina or moving home to Sweden, so Carolina offered him a three year contract with a NTC to entice him to stay.

This is relevant for any Sharks historians, who remember Wallin opting not to waive his NTC to come to San Jose in the 07-08 season, when the Sharks were offering Ehrhoff in return.

Flashing forward to the present, Wallin has stated that he will retire at the end of his contract, in which this is his final year. When this rumor first surfaced a few days ago, he also stated that he is honored that a team (SJ) thinks that highly of him, and that Carolina wants to give him a last shot at a Stanley Cup (of which they are nowhere close to).

18 comments:

  1. you gotta master the links, dog.

    Nice work, Ace Brown.

    I think it only works as a pick if Pickles is on LTIR for a few weeks. He didn't make the trip to start with, so yeah, likely a retroactive LTIR and a pick.

    Perhaps you can enlighten me...who the hell is this guy?

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  2. I think DW would be foolish to move anything of value for a guy who is destined to retire in a few months. That'd be just stupid. I wouldnt trade anybody worth a damn cent for that guy unless (1) Pickles is completely done for or (2) they take huskins and shelley and enable us to pick up somebody we dont really need but would love, like Souray

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  3. Pete-

    I think that you are undervaluing Wallin. I'll post more why I think he is a great match in a bit...

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  4. okay.

    Also, there is a fifth possibility:
    (5) Vlasic goes on LTIR, is out for hella munz, and Wallin's salary fits in as a replacement until the playoffs...when there is no salary cap. muahahahah

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  5. I had no idea on that history. can you link me to that?

    That's a great story. Also, ICE for Wallin is an interesting trade... DW loves those guys he's targeted for years.

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  6. Deal 1 = desirable.
    Deals 3 and 4 = acceptable.
    Deal 2 = Totally unacceptable.

    Red Flags = Wallin's career -61 rating, 18:40 ATOI is the most he's ever had in a season.

    If Vlasic needs surgery and is out after the Olympic break, I understand this deal. If not, it makes no sense.

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  7. Greg-

    You have to look at the intangibles as part of Wallin coming to San Jose, because that is where he really shines and fulfills a need.

    Wallin has always been considered a very clutch performer, and has as many GWG in the postseason as in all of his regular season games. He is a proven playoff performer who owns a Stanley Cup ring.

    The most common descriptions of him include-
    Team-first, consistent, clutch, physical, mistake-free.

    I think all of those address holes that are currently on the defense.

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  8. I think deal #2 is also totally unacceptable unless there was a first rd pick coming back either this year or next.

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  9. I am watching the NHL network and they keep showing clips of Huskins getting picked from behind by the forecheck last night. I think Huskins goes bye-bye.

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  10. What is our D lineup when no one is hurt. Thats what I want to know.

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  11. This is what I would like to see come playoff time-

    Boyle - Murray
    Vlasic - Blake
    Huskins/Demers - Wallin
    Leach
    Huskins/Demers

    I believe that successful playoff teams look to have 8 serviceable defensemen going in to the playoffs, and I think history backs me on this.

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  12. just for shits sake: assuming that Pickles tore his acl and wont be back...

    Boyle - Murray
    Demers - Blake
    Wallin - Leach
    Callahan (if he ever comes back in the A)

    I know GBF will love having Demers in the top-4 but we all know he isn't ready. Also, this is assuming DJ got traded. Even so, I don't think he cracks the playoff roster barring injury.

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  13. Who doesn't crack the playoff roster when healthy?

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  14. Also, I wonder if DW has the balls to get both Wallin and Corvo in the same deal...

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  15. Demers is not top 4 yet. He will most definitely need to be top 4 next season.

    "Shut down" defenseman is a euphemism for "slow guy that can't score". This is the new NHL. All effective defensemen need to be quick, have puck skills, and as Blake put it (in reference the Hawks' D), need to be "interchangeable with forwards".

    Furthermore, "intangibles" is a euphemism for qualities that have no statistical basis, and therefore do not exist. I like that his playoff numbers suggest that he's not scared of the playoffs like pretty much every other Shark, but outside of that I see no evidence to suggest that he'll be any more effective than a Kent Huskins. Last time I checked, we were already paying 1.7M for one of those.

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  16. p.s. No money for Corvo, so if that happens we'd REALLY be coughing up key roster players, and there would be a defensive log jam unless we're ditching Huskins (guess how many tears I'll shed).

    If thats the case this becomes like the Boyle/Luko acquisition, with Wallin being the Luko of the deal, and we all know how that turned out.

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  17. Greg-

    I know you like numbers, as do I.

    Here's some of interest-

    Wallin has the second most shorthanded time on ice on the Hurricanes.

    His +/- is 3rd best among starting defenseman (not including Carson who has only played 10 games). I think this is a much better indicator of his defensive responsibility than the number you listed as his career +/-

    He is a slow defenseman, no doubt. That being said, he stands out because he has good puck skills, including a good first pass. These two things are not mutually exclusive.

    That being said, I am certainly troubled by how slow our defense is overall.

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  18. I certainly think that +/- should always be calibrated against a team's plus minus, which is of course horrible for the Canes. Therefore I'll agree Wallin's current -5 is actually pretty good when weighed against the Canes' -36 overall. That being said, he has been minus almost his whole career, as well as being only a +2 in the Canes' Cup-winning season. Still strikes me as a red flag.

    I like the high SH TOI in general, but consider that its impossible to get a minus on the PK, therefore that makes his even strength rating slightly worse.

    I also agree that speed and puck skills are by not mutually INclusive (i.e. one can certainly exist without the other in a player, see: Mike Saksen), I simply argue that to be effective in today's game you need both.

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